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The Contribution of the Age Distribution of Cases to COVID-19 Case Fatality Across Countries : A Nine-Country Demographic Study.

Identifieur interne : 000236 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000235; suivant : 000237

The Contribution of the Age Distribution of Cases to COVID-19 Case Fatality Across Countries : A Nine-Country Demographic Study.

Auteurs : Nikkil Sudharsanan ; Oliver Didzun ; Till B Rnighausen ; Pascal Geldsetzer [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32698605

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

BACKGROUND

There is wide variation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case-fatality rates (CFRs) across countries, leading to uncertainty about the true lethality of the disease. A large part of this variation may be due to the ages of individuals who are tested and identified.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the contribution of distortions from the age distributions of confirmed cases to CFRs within and across populations.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional demographic study using aggregate data on COVID-19 cases and deaths by age.

SETTING

Population-based data from China, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

All individuals with confirmed COVID-19, as reported by each country as of 19 April 2020 (

MEASUREMENTS

Age-specific COVID-19 CFRs and age-specific population shares by country.

RESULTS

The overall observed CFR varies widely, with the highest rates in Italy (9.3%) and the Netherlands (7.4%) and the lowest rates in South Korea (1.6%) and Germany (0.7%). Adjustment for the age distribution of cases explains 66% of the variation across countries, with a resulting age-standardized median CFR of 1.9%. Among a larger sample of 95 countries, the observed variation in COVID-19 CFRs is 13 times larger than what would be expected on the basis of just differences in the age composition of countries.

LIMITATION

The age-adjusted rates assume that, conditional on age, COVID-19 mortality among diagnosed cases is the same as that among undiagnosed cases and that individuals of all ages are equally susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection.

CONCLUSION

Selective testing and identification of older cases considerably warps estimates of the lethality of COVID-19 within populations and comparisons across countries. Removing age distortions and focusing on differences in age-adjusted case fatality will be essential for accurately comparing countries' performance in caring for patients with COVID-19 and for monitoring the epidemic over time.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.


DOI: 10.7326/M20-2973
PubMed: 32698605
PubMed Central: PMC7397549


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


Le document en format XML

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<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>BACKGROUND</b>
</p>
<p>There is wide variation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case-fatality rates (CFRs) across countries, leading to uncertainty about the true lethality of the disease. A large part of this variation may be due to the ages of individuals who are tested and identified.</p>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>OBJECTIVE</b>
</p>
<p>To measure the contribution of distortions from the age distributions of confirmed cases to CFRs within and across populations.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>DESIGN</b>
</p>
<p>Cross-sectional demographic study using aggregate data on COVID-19 cases and deaths by age.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>SETTING</b>
</p>
<p>Population-based data from China, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>PARTICIPANTS</b>
</p>
<p>All individuals with confirmed COVID-19, as reported by each country as of 19 April 2020 (</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>MEASUREMENTS</b>
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<p>Age-specific COVID-19 CFRs and age-specific population shares by country.</p>
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<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>RESULTS</b>
</p>
<p>The overall observed CFR varies widely, with the highest rates in Italy (9.3%) and the Netherlands (7.4%) and the lowest rates in South Korea (1.6%) and Germany (0.7%). Adjustment for the age distribution of cases explains 66% of the variation across countries, with a resulting age-standardized median CFR of 1.9%. Among a larger sample of 95 countries, the observed variation in COVID-19 CFRs is 13 times larger than what would be expected on the basis of just differences in the age composition of countries.</p>
</div>
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<p>
<b>LIMITATION</b>
</p>
<p>The age-adjusted rates assume that, conditional on age, COVID-19 mortality among diagnosed cases is the same as that among undiagnosed cases and that individuals of all ages are equally susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>CONCLUSION</b>
</p>
<p>Selective testing and identification of older cases considerably warps estimates of the lethality of COVID-19 within populations and comparisons across countries. Removing age distortions and focusing on differences in age-adjusted case fatality will be essential for accurately comparing countries' performance in caring for patients with COVID-19 and for monitoring the epidemic over time.</p>
</div>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>
<b>PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE</b>
</p>
<p>Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.</p>
</div>
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<AbstractText Label="BACKGROUND">There is wide variation in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case-fatality rates (CFRs) across countries, leading to uncertainty about the true lethality of the disease. A large part of this variation may be due to the ages of individuals who are tested and identified.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE">To measure the contribution of distortions from the age distributions of confirmed cases to CFRs within and across populations.</AbstractText>
<AbstractText Label="DESIGN">Cross-sectional demographic study using aggregate data on COVID-19 cases and deaths by age.</AbstractText>
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